From Underdog to Contender: Zohran Mamdani’s Remarkable Surge in NYC’s Mayoral Race

When Zohran Mamdani announced his candidacy for New York City mayor, few political observers gave the 33-year-old Queens assemblymember much of a chance. Dismissed as “too left, too aspirational, too young,” according to The Nation, Mamdani was widely seen as a fringe candidate in a crowded Democratic primary field.

Yet with less than three weeks until the June 24 primary, Mamdani has engineered one of the most surprising political ascents in recent New York history, transforming from an afterthought into the clear second-place contender behind former Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Polling Momentum Builds

The numbers tell the story of Mamdani’s remarkable trajectory. In March, a Data for Progress poll showed him at just 15% support, trailing Cuomo’s commanding 39% lead. By late May, that gap had narrowed dramatically. The most recent Emerson College poll shows Cuomo maintaining his lead but with Mamdani surging into a solid second place position.

Even more telling is what happens in ranked-choice voting scenarios. According to recent polling, while Cuomo leads in first-round voting, the final ranked-choice tabulation shows a much closer race, with some simulations showing Mamdani within single digits of the former governor.

The Marist poll released in May found that 37% of likely Democratic primary voters chose Cuomo as their first choice, while 18% picked Mamdani—a significant improvement from his earlier standing and establishing him as the clear alternative to the former governor.

Building a Diverse Coalition

What makes Mamdani’s rise particularly noteworthy is the breadth of his appeal. Initially dismissed as appealing only to young progressives and the “Bernie bro” demographic, his campaign has systematically expanded beyond his initial base in Astoria and among Democratic Socialists of America members.

The geographic spread of his donors, as noted by The Nation, now reaches “from Riverdale and the South Bronx to Bay Ridge and Sunset Park—and even into New Dorp and Great Kills on Staten Island.” This expansion suggests Mamdani has successfully moved beyond a narrow ideological niche to build what The Nation describes as “the ingredients of a new urban politics.”

His recent endorsement from state Senator John Liu, as reported by Gothamist, represents a significant breakthrough in expanding his Asian American support. Liu, a former citywide comptroller and the first Asian American elected to citywide office, brings institutional credibility that could help Mamdani broaden his appeal beyond his progressive base.

The endorsement is particularly strategic given the competitive nature of the Asian American vote. While Cuomo currently leads among Asian voters 27% to 19% in first-round voting, recent polling shows both candidates split evenly in final ranked-choice tabulations, making Liu’s backing potentially decisive.

Grassroots Funding Success

Mamdani’s financial performance has been equally impressive, demonstrating genuine grassroots enthusiasm. The Nation reported that his campaign had raised $8.4 million from contributions and matching funds, drawn from over 20,000 donors—significantly more than his rivals, including 7,600 for Brad Lander and 5,400 for Cuomo.

As The Nation concluded in their endorsement, Mamdani has proven himself “the rarest of political talents: a politician whose ability to communicate, connect with constituents, and articulate vital truths has the power to energize and even mobilize.”

This small-donor model, reminiscent of Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaigns, has given Mamdani crucial independence from traditional power brokers. As Senator Liu noted in his endorsement, “He doesn’t owe anybody anything. He’s not beholden to any moneyed interests.”

Message Discipline and Policy Focus

Central to Mamdani’s rise has been his disciplined focus on kitchen-table economic issues that resonate with working-class New Yorkers struggling with the city’s affordability crisis. His core platform—freezing rents for stabilized tenants, making city buses fast and free, and providing universal childcare—addresses the “cost-of-living issues” that The Nation identifies as driving his campaign’s appeal.

This economic focus has proven particularly effective in the wake of Donald Trump’s presidential victory, when many Democratic voters are looking for candidates who can address the material concerns that drove some communities rightward. Mamdani has argued that his economic agenda could win back voters who supported Trump, telling Gothamist that when he asked Trump voters about “freezing the rent, making buses fast and free, delivering universal child care,” they responded positively.

Overcoming Attacks and Building Resilience

Mamdani’s campaign has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of personal attacks. His outspoken criticism of Israel’s operations in Gaza—including his description of Israel’s actions as “genocide”—has drawn predictable criticism in a city where support for Israel has traditionally been seen as politically essential.

The recent attack from Republican Councilwoman Vickie Paladino, who called for his deportation despite his U.S. citizenship, illustrates the intensity of opposition he faces. Yet Mamdani has used such attacks to his advantage, framing them as evidence of the “Trump and his sycophants” politics he opposes while challenging rivals like Cuomo to condemn such rhetoric.

Institutional Recognition

The establishment’s growing recognition of Mamdani’s viability is evident in recent endorsements. The New York Working Families Party ranked him as their top choice for mayor, a significant institutional endorsement that provides organizational support and voter mobilization capacity.

The Nation’s dual endorsement of both Mamdani and Brad Lander—with Mamdani as the first choice—represents perhaps the most significant progressive media endorsement, lending intellectual credibility to his candidacy while positioning him as the primary alternative to Cuomo.

The Path Forward

With three weeks remaining until the primary, Mamdani faces the challenge of translating momentum into victory. Political observers remain skeptical about his ability to close the gap with Cuomo, particularly given the former governor’s name recognition and financial resources.

The success of his strategy will largely depend on three factors: continued growth in outer-borough communities, particularly among Asian American voters where Liu’s endorsement could prove decisive; the effectiveness of ranked-choice voting in consolidating anti-Cuomo sentiment; and his ability to motivate young and first-time voters who may not be captured in traditional polling.

Mamdani’s rise from long shot to legitimate contender represents more than just personal political success—it suggests the possibility of a new model for urban politics that combines progressive policy positions with broad-based grassroots organizing. Whether that model can overcome traditional political advantages remains the central question as New York Democrats prepare to make their choice.

As The Nation concluded in their endorsement, Mamdani has proven himself “the rarest of political talents: a politician whose ability to communicate, connect with constituents, and articulate vital truths has the power to energize and even mobilize.”

In a city facing affordability crises, corruption scandals, and questions about its political future, Mamdani’s campaign offers a test of whether grassroots energy and economic populism can triumph over establishment politics and name recognition. The answer will reshape New York City politics for years to come.