Trump-Modi Summit: Two Seasoned Performers Display Their Art of the Deal Skills
- For once, India’s peripheral status on the U.S. strategic radar has served it well. This lower engagement level allows India to recalibrate its relationship with sound bites designed to suit the new administration.
India’s social media is agog with a clip showing President Trump pulling out a chair for Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the latter’s visit to the United States. The sign of deference by the usually truculent and disrespectful leader is being touted as a sign of Modi’s (and India’s) success. Trump’s reference to Modi as a better negotiator and as “the killer” (meant as a compliment rather than referring to any murderous tendencies!) further augmented Indian jingoism regarding Modi. And by all accounts, the Indians proved to be tough negotiators. The two sides have promised to increase bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, up from the current $129 billion. There is talk of India being a destination for U.S. energy exports as well as willing to purchase crucial defense equipment.
But perhaps the biggest gain for India has been on the question of Pakistani-Canadian businessman Tahawwur Rana, accused of supplying material support to Pakistani terrorists in the 2008 attacks on Mumbai. Rana has been incarcerated in the U.S. on other charges and Trump’s willingness to turn him over to India, where he will likely get the death penalty, is a feather in Modi’s cap.
Lack of Specifics
The bonhomie surrounding the negotiations obscures the lack of specifics that actually matter, but point to an altered political landscape, that of a Republican presidency. Historically, India has enjoyed better relations with Republican administrations, with Democrats usually more critical of human rights violations or nuclear issues. With the exception of Nixon’s backing of Pakistan in the 1971 war, all Republican administrations have been viewed as better for India and are viewed as being pragmatic rather than idealists.
The current administration is headed by a self-professed dealmaker who is additionally not saddled by any of the historic cornerstones of American foreign policy, a principal example being hostility to the autocratic Russian regime. During the Biden administration, India’s reluctance to criticize Russia had been noted, as had the purchase of oil from that sanctioned pariah. India’s unwillingness to join America’s quest to isolate Russia had put a dampener on collaborative efforts against China which had not taken off beyond nickname stage (the Quad comprising India, Australia, Japan, and the U.S.).
With Trump’s return, there is no mention of joining against Russia, indeed the only irritants bilaterally are the issue of migrants (legal and illegal) and reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. against India. The issue of migrants has raised much excitement in India with the recent return of a flight of deportees in shackles. NPR reported that Indians are the third largest national group of illegal migrants into the U.S., an astonishing change for a country whose emigrant exports have until now been educated technical, business, or medical professionals. Legal migrants are also feeling the heat with the MAGA base resolutely against Indian H1-B holders despite the latter being defended by both Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk.
Modi’s visit has proved to defuse Trump’s diatribes against India for now, possibly due to adroit negotiations by the Indian delegation as well as the Prime Minister’s identification with MAGA (he referred to it favorably and suggested India adopt MIGA – Make India Great Again). India has benefitted from neither being a U.S. ally from whom more was expected (such as European countries), nor has it been an antagonist like Iran and China earning Trump’s ire. For once, India’s peripheral status on the U.S. strategic radar has served it well. This lower engagement level allows India to recalibrate its relationship with sound bites designed to suit the new administration.
Acronyms Aplenty
The joint statement on the meetings yields impressive acronyms and intentions or reiteration of continuing initiatives but little by way of concrete specifics. The last may happen in the future but the current statement is largely a notification of future intentions. Among these intentions are: the STA – 1 (Strategic Trade Authorization) which recognizes India as a major U.S. defense partner and helps its access to defense technology, the ASIA (Autonomous Systems Industrial Alliance) – an initiative to scale industry partnerships and production in the Indo-Pacific, Mission 500 – the goal of bringing Indo-U.S. trade to $500 billion by 2030, intent to negotiate a BTA (Bilateral Trade Agreement) by fall 2025, and the launch of U.S.-India TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology) which will enable greater inter-government, academic and private sector collaboration.
There is a great opportunity here for both states to move forward towards a mutually beneficial partnership. What might hold it back are the whimsical nature of Donald Trump’s decisions, and a steely determination by India to avoid becoming dependent on American goodwill. In the end there is much talk right now, but little substantive action.
Milind Thakar is Professor and Graduate Director of International Relations at the University of Indianapolis.