Trump’s Pakistan Pivot: There is Growing Evidence Islamabad has Seduced the White House With Lucrative Financial Arrangements

Since returning to office in January 2025, President Donald Trump has shown a marked shift in his approach to South Asian geopolitics, displaying what analysts describe as a more favorable stance toward Pakistan while simultaneously straining relations with India. This represents a significant departure from decades of U.S. foreign policy that had increasingly favored New Delhi as a strategic counterweight to China.

The most striking aspect of this policy shift appears to be intertwined with the Trump family’s business ventures. World Liberty Financial (WLF), founded in 2024, is no ordinary fintech startup. The company is 60% owned by Donald Trump’s sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., along with his son-in-law Jared Kushner.

WLFI lists Trump, his sons Donald Jr. and Eric, and grandson Barron as part of its Web3 leadership team. Trump is listed as “Chief Crypto Advocate.” This personal involvement has raised questions about potential conflicts of interest in foreign policy decisions.

The timing of events has drawn particular scrutiny from observers. The agreement focuses on expanding blockchain technology, stablecoin adoption, and DeFi integration across Pakistan. A press release cited by Dawn newspaper described the deal as “a major step toward positioning Pakistan as a global leader in the digital finance revolution” and enhancing “Pakistan’s” position in the cryptocurrency space.

What has alarmed many analysts is the reported involvement of high-level Pakistani military officials in these business arrangements. The American company at the centre of the controversy is World Liberty Financial, a fintech firm specializing in blockchain and cryptocurrency investments. What raises further eyebrows is that this high-stakes deal was reportedly facilitated directly by General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff.

The Kashmir Mediation Claims

Trump’s recent claims about mediating between India and Pakistan have created significant diplomatic tensions. President Trump has repeatedly claimed of having got ‘things settled’ between India and Pakistan, while adding that five or six planes were ‘shot down’ during the recent skirmish between the two neighbors.

In the weeks after India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire in May, officials in New Delhi seethed over Donald Trump’s claims that he brokered an end to a four-day armed conflict. This has created what one Carnegie Endowment analysis describes as a fundamental threat to bilateral relations.

Perhaps the most concrete manifestation of Trump’s shifting priorities has been his aggressive economic stance toward India. Reports suggest that Trump’s 50% India tariff threats upend decades of U.S. policy, representing a dramatic departure from the previous trajectory of U.S.-India economic cooperation.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has received more favorable treatment. At the end of February, the Trump administration decided to exempt $397 million in security assistance to Pakistan from its massive foreign aid cuts. The funds will be allocated to a program that monitors Pakistan’s U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets—to make sure that they are used for appropriate purposes, demonstrating a continued security partnership despite broader aid reductions.

The China Factor

The implications for the broader U.S.-China strategic competition are profound. India has traditionally served as a key partner in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at containing Chinese influence. Trump’s apparent pivot toward Pakistan could significantly undermine this approach.

At the end of February, the Trump administration decided to exempt $397 million in security assistance to Pakistan from its massive foreign aid cuts.

Trump is pushing India to submit to China, according to some foreign policy analysts, who argue that by alienating India, the United States is inadvertently strengthening China’s position in South Asia. Pakistan’s deep ties with Beijing through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) mean that closer U.S.-Pakistan relations could paradoxically benefit Chinese strategic interests.

This represents a fundamental miscalculation in great power competition dynamics. By prioritizing what appear to be personal business interests over strategic geopolitical considerations, the Trump administration may be inadvertently ceding ground to China in one of the world’s most strategically important regions.

Domestic Political Consequences

The implications for U.S. domestic politics, particularly regarding the influential Indian-American community, could be significant. Indian Americans represent one of the most educated and economically successful immigrant communities in the United States, with substantial political and economic influence, particularly in the technology sector.

The community, which has generally been supportive of closer U.S.-India ties regardless of party affiliation, may view Trump’s apparent favoritism toward Pakistan as a betrayal of their interests and those of their country of origin. This could have electoral consequences in key swing states with significant Indian-American populations.

The potential for an exodus of Indian technology professionals represents perhaps the most serious domestic economic risk of Trump’s policy shift. Indian professionals have been instrumental in the growth of America’s technology sector, from Silicon Valley startups to major corporations. The H-1B visa program, heavily utilized by Indian tech workers, could become a casualty of deteriorating bilateral relations.

If Trump’s policies create an unwelcoming environment for Indian professionals, the United States risks losing critical technological expertise to competitors like Canada, the United Kingdom, or even back to India’s growing tech sector. This brain drain could significantly impact American competitiveness in crucial technologies like artificial intelligence, semiconductor design, and software development.

A Multipolar Realignment

The broader global implications extend far beyond South Asia. India’s positioning as a leader of the Global South and its role in forums like the G20, QUAD, and BRICS make it a crucial player in the emerging multipolar world order. By alienating India, the United States risks pushing New Delhi closer to alternative power centers, particularly Russia and China.

Islamabad is reveling in an unexpected turnaround in U.S. relations. This Pakistani optimism, however, may be premature if it’s based primarily on transactional business relationships rather than genuine strategic alignment.

The apparent intersection of Trump’s family business interests with foreign policy decisions has prompted congressional attention. Trump’s connection with Pakistan crypto deal sparks U.S. Senate probe, indicating that the legislative branch is taking notice of potential conflicts of interest.

These investigations could reveal the extent to which personal financial interests are influencing American foreign policy, potentially setting important precedents for future administrations and the boundaries between personal business and public service.

A High-Stakes Gamble

Trump’s apparent warming toward Pakistan at India’s expense represents a dramatic gamble with America’s position in one of the world’s most strategically important regions. While the full extent of the Trump family’s financial interests in Pakistan remains unclear, the correlation between business dealings and diplomatic positioning raises serious questions about the integrity of U.S. foreign policy decision-making.

The long-term consequences could be severe: alienating a democratic partner of 1.4 billion people, weakening America’s position vis-à-vis China, potentially triggering a technology brain drain, and undermining decades of carefully constructed strategic partnerships. Whether these risks are justified by whatever benefits Trump perceives from closer Pakistan ties remains one of the most important foreign policy questions of his second term.

The situation continues to evolve rapidly, and the ultimate impact will depend on how both India and Pakistan respond to these shifting American priorities, as well as how other global powers seek to capitalize on this apparent strategic miscalculation.